Kelly answer

How much size can you actually use with the Kelly criterion?

A positive edge does not mean unlimited size. Kelly is useful because it gives you a survivable size before you talk yourself into a heroic one.

Suggested size

Start with half Kelly

At 60% win rate and 2.0 odds, half Kelly is usually a more realistic starting point than full Kelly.

Suggested size10.0%
Full Kelly20.0%
Edge20.0%
Wealth after 12 rounds120

Quarter Kelly comparison

Reducing the fraction further makes the growth path calmer, which is often the trade people actually want.

5.0%
Full Kelly20.0%
Edge20.0%
Wealth after 12 rounds111

What if the edge is thinner?

A small drop in win rate cuts the sizing fast. That is the point of the framework.

5.0%
Full Kelly10.0%
Edge10.0%
Wealth after 12 rounds105
Next steps

Next steps

Use Kelly to cap the size, then translate that cap into your actual risk rules.

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